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China’s Births Fall to Record Low in 2025 as Population Shrinks for Fourth Year

Experts say small incentives, including a new contraceptive tax, won’t overcome deep structural forces keeping fertility near 1.

A woman lifts up a child in Beijing, China, on Jan. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
People catch a sight of the snow-covered Forbidden City from a pavilion with lantern decorations at the Jingshan Park a day after the snow fall, in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
Visitors flock to the snow-covered Forbidden City a day after the snow fall, in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
A woman crouches beside a baby sitting in a stroller on a sidewalk along a city street, on January 9, 2026, in Chongqing, China.

Overview

  • Official data show 7.92 million births against 11.31 million deaths in 2025, cutting the population by 3.39 million to about 1.4049 billion and pushing the birth rate to 5.63 per 1,000.
  • Births fell 17% from 2024’s 9.54 million, setting the lowest level since records began in 1949 and underscoring an entrenched downtrend.
  • Beijing is offering cash support such as about 3,600 yuan per child under three and waiving public kindergarten fees, and it began levying a 13% VAT on contraceptives on January 1, 2026.
  • Demographers estimate total fertility at roughly 0.9–1.02 and cite high child‑rearing costs, fewer marriages, a smaller cohort of women of childbearing age, and the legacy of the one‑child policy as primary drivers.
  • China reports 5% GDP growth for 2025, yet ageing pressures are mounting with about 23% of citizens over 60 and projections near 400 million by 2035, raising long‑term economic and fiscal risks.