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China’s Birth Rate Hits Record Low as Population Shrinks for Fourth Year

Analysts cite high child‑rearing costs, delayed marriage, urban pressures, limited impact from new incentives.

People catch a sight of the snow-covered Forbidden City from a pavilion with lantern decorations at the Jingshan Park a day after the snow fall, in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
Visitors flock to the snow-covered Forbidden City a day after the snow fall, in Beijing, Sunday, Jan. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
A woman crouches beside a baby sitting in a stroller on a sidewalk along a city street, on January 9, 2026, in Chongqing, China.
A woman lifts up a child in Beijing, China, on Jan. 15, 2026. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

Overview

  • Official figures for 2025 show 5.63 births per 1,000 people, 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths, leaving the population down 3.39 million to about 1.405 billion.
  • The decline marks a fourth straight annual drop, with demographers saying a brief uptick in 2024 was an outlier rather than a reversal.
  • Beijing has rolled out measures including a nationwide childcare subsidy of about 3,600 yuan per child under three, tax relief for childcare and preschool, a 13% VAT on contraceptives, easier marriage registration, extended maternity leave, and phased increases in retirement ages.
  • Experts say structural factors—high living and education costs, changing gender roles, urban lifestyles, and fewer marriages—are suppressing fertility; marriage registrations fell roughly 20% in 2024 to about 6.1 million couples.
  • The aging trend is accelerating, with about 23% of the population now over 60, raising concerns about pension strain and weak consumption even as GDP growth was reported at 5% in 2025 with slower momentum late in the year.