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12h ago

China’s Biggest U.S. Soybean Buys in Two Years Jolt Prices as Market Tests a Thaw

Beijing has not publicly confirmed the 12‑million‑ton pledge U.S. officials cited.

Soybeans are loaded into a truck from a transfer hopper during harvest season in Deerfield, Ohio, U.S., October 7, 2021. Picture taken October 7, 2021. REUTERS/Dane Rhys
Soybean farmers are hopeful about resumed trade between the U.S. and China, but uncertainty remains.

Overview

  • USDA flash reports confirmed about 1.584 million metric tons sold to China over three days this week, with a separate 792,000‑ton sale also reported.
  • The surge in buying sent CBOT futures to the highest since June 2024 and pushed U.S. beans to a steep premium over Brazil, curbing competitiveness for other importers.
  • Growers accelerated cash sales during the rally, with interviews suggesting roughly 30% to 40% of the 2025 harvest has been sold so far.
  • Analysts are cautious on the pace toward year‑end targets, noting Brazil’s price advantage, weak crush margins in China, and unconfirmed long‑term commitments.
  • State buyer COFCO had been absent from U.S. purchases since May and through the start of the 2025 harvest, making the fresh deals a notable shift in activity.