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China’s Auto Boom Turns to Glut as Price War Deepens and Shakeout Looms

Policy-driven overcapacity has left dealers discounting at a loss, with consolidation seen as increasingly likely.

Overview

  • Dealers and intermediaries report selling new cars at steep losses, exemplified by Zcar’s Chengdu outlet offering locally made Audis at 50% off and a FAW SUV about 60% below sticker.
  • China’s factories can build roughly twice last year’s output of 27.5 million vehicles, according to Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute.
  • Industry executives say profits have become elusive for most automakers as a multi-year price war grinds on in the world’s largest car market.
  • AlixPartners projects only 15 of 129 EV and hybrid brands in China will remain financially viable by 2030, signaling a major consolidation.
  • Officials have recently vowed to curb price wars in EVs and solar, while key agencies did not comment on mounting strains in a sector that supports about one-tenth of GDP.