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China’s August Data Confirm Deeper Slowdown as Investment Slumps

Weak readings heighten pressure for targeted support to keep growth near the 5% goal.

Overview

  • Retail sales rose 3.4% year over year in August, missing forecasts and easing from 3.7% in July.
  • Industrial output grew 5.2% year over year, the weakest since August 2024, while year-to-date fixed-asset investment increased 0.5%.
  • Real estate investment fell 12.9% in the first eight months, with state-led projects propping up overall investment as private spending contracted.
  • Consumer prices dropped 0.4% year over year and producer-price deflation persisted, as the surveyed urban unemployment rate edged up to 5.3%.
  • Economists pointed to cooling exports, overcapacity curbs and fading subsidies as drags, with some expecting rate and reserve-ratio cuts even as a large stimulus package remains uncertain.