Overview

• In an op-ed in The Australian, Ambassador Xiao Qian declared that China and Australia are “not foes” and urged Canberra to maintain defence spending at just over 2% of GDP.
• He accused some US and NATO members of hyping a “China threat narrative” at forums such as the Shangri-La Dialogue and NATO summit to justify sharp increases in military budgets.
• Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles acknowledged that Beijing’s rapid conventional militarisation and an estimated 600-plus nuclear warheads have driven a distinct “security anxiety” in Australia.
• US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that China could invade Taiwan as early as 2027, intensifying pressure on Australia to raise its defence budget to 3.5% of GDP.
• Canberra continues to hedge by engaging in the Quad partnership and resisting calls to match NATO’s 5% defence spending target while safeguarding deep trade links with China.