China’s 4.8% Q3 Growth and Signs of U.S.–China Talks Stoke Global Risk Rally

Overview

• Official NBS data show China’s GDP grew 4.8% year over year in Q3, with September industrial output up 6.5% and retail sales up 3.0% as fixed‑asset and property investment fell year to date.
• The PBoC left key policy rates unchanged for a fifth straight month despite the slower growth profile.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed a meeting this week with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, and media reported a new round of talks with a possible leaders’ meeting later this month.
• Global equities rallied on Monday and Asian markets extended gains Tuesday, with Chinese benchmarks logging their biggest daily rise in six weeks and Wall Street closing up more than 1%.
• In Brazil, the Boletim Focus lowered the 2025 IPCA projection to 4.70% as the Ibovespa rose 0.77% and the real strengthened, with the dollar closing below R$5.40.