Overview
- Official figures report 7.92 million births in 2025, down 17% from 2024 and the lowest since records began in 1949.
- China recorded 11.31 million deaths, leaving the mainland population smaller by about 3.39 million year-on-year.
- The working-age share fell to 60.6% in 2025, and projections indicate roughly 30% of the population will be 60 or older by 2034.
- Beijing’s measures include childcare subsidies of about US$500 per child annually to age three, extended parental leave and tax rebates in some regions, new taxes on condoms at 13%, and tax breaks for childcare providers and matchmakers.
- Demographers cite China’s sub-replacement fertility (1.3 in 2020) and international evidence that cash incentives have limited impact, warning of slower growth, rising labor costs, weaker housing demand, and mounting pension and healthcare strain; retirement-age delays adopted in 2024 are being phased in.