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China Weighs Calibrated Retaliation Against Japan Over Taiwan Remark

Officials warn of resolute steps, with experts expecting measured moves to limit economic fallout.

Overview

  • Beijing’s response follows Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement that a Taiwan conflict could meet Japan’s threshold for collective self-defence.
  • China has raised travel warnings, paused film screenings, signalled curbs on Japanese seafood, and halted talks on resuming beef imports.
  • Ministry of Commerce spokeswoman He Yongqian cautioned that China would take necessary and resolute measures if Tokyo holds its position.
  • Analysts, including Xu Weijun, say Beijing is likely to avoid abrupt or sweeping action to reduce the risk of economic blowback and protect its open-trade image.
  • Experts add that further steps will hinge on Japan’s stance, with China retaining options from tourism curbs to export controls but weighing the costs of escalation.