Overview

• China expanded its export regime by adding five rare-earth elements to its restricted list for a total of 12 and tightening licensing on extraction and refining equipment, with defense-related requests likely to be denied and semiconductor or AI-linked cases reviewed individually.
• New provisions require foreign producers to seek Beijing’s approval if at least 0.1% of a product’s value derives from Chinese rare-earth materials or processing technologies, even when manufacturing occurs outside China.
• Chinese rare-earth exports fell 25.3% year over year in the first half of 2025 to $192 million, continuing a multiyear decline alongside tighter controls and traceability measures.
• U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1 before later softening his tone, U.S. rare-earth and critical-minerals stocks surged 10% to 25%, JPMorgan pledged up to $10 billion for security-related industries, and the Pentagon is accelerating a $1 billion strategic stockpiling plan.
• Argentina is being courted as an alternative source as U.S. officials signal support for developing its resources, with the country’s geological service citing more than 190,000 tonnes identified and 3.3 million tonnes in potential yet limited domestic processing capacity.