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China Takes Early Lead in Humanoid Robots With 2026 Production Ramp

Beijing’s five-year plan elevates embodied AI to boost domestic robot makers.

Overview

  • CNBC reports China leads early commercialization, with UBTech raising about $400 million and targeting 5,000 units in 2026 and 10,000 in 2027, Unitree preparing an IPO near $7 billion, and AgiBot saying its 5,000th unit rolled off the line, while Tesla has yet to sell Optimus.
  • China’s leadership named embodied AI in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and analysts cite deep supply chains and local subsidies as cost advantages as companies prepare for 2026 production ramps and projected broader factory adoption by 2027.
  • China’s top planner, the NDRC, warned in November of a potential investment bubble, noting more than 150 humanoid robotics firms and a wave of similar products.
  • Key bottlenecks include heavy reliance on U.S. chips such as Nvidia, limited dexterity in robotic hands, and current prototype costs of roughly $150,000 to $500,000 versus target ranges of $20,000 to $50,000.
  • Early real-world deployments focus on structured tasks in factories and warehouses, exemplified by Agility Robotics introducing its Digit robot at a Mercado Libre facility in Texas.