Overview

• China’s total soybean imports reached 12.87 million tonnes in September, the second-highest monthly level on record, up 13% year on year and 5% from August.
• Brazil supplied 10.96 million tonnes, about 85% of the total, while Argentina shipped 1.17 million tonnes, roughly 9%, helped by a brief suspension of export taxes.
• Chinese buyers have secured shipments through November largely from South America, narrowing the near-term window for U.S. sales from the new harvest.
• Analysts warn of a potential February–April supply gap if no trade breakthrough restores access to U.S. cargoes.
• Despite the current halt, year-to-date U.S. arrivals stand at 16.8 million tonnes, up 15.5%, as trade talks between Beijing and Washington show signs of regaining momentum.