Overview

• The Shanghai Composite has climbed roughly 25% since April to a 10-year high, with onshore markets adding about US$1 trillion in value over the past month.
• State-backed funds, insurers and other long-term investors are leading the advance, while foreign participation remains limited and retail money is returning cautiously.
• Outstanding margin financing has risen to roughly 2.1–2.18 trillion yuan, the highest since mid-2015, though its share of market float is about half the 2015 level.
• Retail investor activity is picking up but far from a frenzy, with 1.9 million new accounts in July versus peaks of around 7 million per month during 2015.
• Analysts highlight vast household savings of about 160 trillion yuan as potential dry powder, even as Nomura warns the equity boom may deliver little economic lift given households’ property-heavy balance sheets.