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China Sets Yuan Fixing Above Forecast as Beijing Signals Brake on Rally

A stronger-than-forecast setting suggests officials are curbing rapid gains within the managed trading band.

Overview

  • The People’s Bank of China fixed USD/CNY at 7.0288 on Dec. 31, topping a Reuters estimate of 6.9945.
  • Monday’s onshore close was 6.9940 after USD/CNY dipped below 7.0 for the first time since May 2023.
  • Traders read a higher USD/CNY midpoint as resistance to faster yuan appreciation and a preference for stability.
  • The currency has strengthened recently, with the offshore yuan briefly breaking the 7-per-dollar threshold and trading near 7.009 on Dec. 29.
  • China’s managed float allows onshore trading within a +/-2% band around the daily midpoint, with intervention tools available to smooth volatility.