China Sets Three-Year Beef Import Quotas With 55% Surcharge Above Caps, Starting Jan. 1

Overview

• Brazil receives a 2026 quota of 1.106 million tonnes, rising modestly through 2028, after shipping volumes in 2025 that exceeded that level to China.
• Country-specific caps also cover Argentina (511k t in 2026), Uruguay (324k t), New Zealand (206k t), Australia (205k t) and the United States (164k t), with total quotas growing from 2.69 million tonnes in 2026 to 2.80 million in 2028.
• The 55% tariff applies only to volumes above each country’s cap and is added to existing duties; unused yearly quota cannot roll over, and China’s FTA beef safeguards with Australia are suspended during the measure.
• Brazil’s agriculture minister called the scenario not highly worrying and said Brasília will open talks in January seeking adjustments, while industry groups warn of supply-chain reorganization and estimate potential 2026 revenue losses of up to US$3 billion.
• Mofcom says the policy may be reviewed and gradually eased over the period, as analysts expect China’s beef imports to decline in 2026 with material effects on key exporters such as Australia and the U.S.