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China Sets 2026 Course for Proactive Fiscal Support and Looser Monetary Policy

Investors now look to the Central Economic Work Conference for concrete 2026 targets.

Overview

  • The Politburo said it will keep domestic demand as the main driver, promote innovation, and cultivate new growth engines, according to a Xinhua readout.
  • Leaders pledged to better align domestic economic work with international economic and trade 'struggles' and to seek effective qualitative improvement with reasonable quantitative growth.
  • Officials vowed to stabilize jobs, firms, markets, and expectations to secure a solid start to the next five-year plan.
  • Analysts read the guidance as pointing to a higher fiscal deficit, increased bond issuance, and potential interest-rate cuts to pursue growth near 5% next year.
  • Chinese customs data for November showed exports to the U.S. fell 29% year on year, while shipments to the European Union rose 14.8% and to Southeast Asia increased 8.2%, reflecting market diversification efforts.