Overview

• A Reuters survey of 20 analysts unanimously forecasts no change on Monday, keeping the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%.
• The People’s Bank of China left its seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged last week, strengthening expectations for steady lending benchmarks.
• The expected hold follows the Federal Reserve’s rate cut last week, underscoring a divergence in policy paths.
• Both LPRs were last trimmed by 10 basis points in May, with the one-year rate anchoring most loans and the five-year guiding mortgage pricing.
• Officials have been cautious on large-scale stimulus as resilient exports and a domestic equity rally lessen pressure despite signs of slower growth.