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China Set to Hold Loan Prime Rates for Sixth Month as PBOC Turns Less Dovish

The central bank's latest signals point to targeted credit support over broad rate cuts.

Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the central bank (PBOC), in Beijing, China September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
A person walks past the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, in Beijing, China May 7, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

Overview

  • All 23 respondents in a Reuters survey expect the one-year and five-year LPRs to stay at 3.0% and 3.5% on Thursday, extending a six-month streak of no changes.
  • The PBOC kept its seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged this month, reinforcing a steadier policy stance and its role as a key policy anchor.
  • The bank revived the concept of “cross-cyclical” adjustments in its Q3 report, which analysts say indicates reduced urgency for broad-based easing.
  • Official data cited by Xinhua show weighted-average rates on new corporate loans and new mortgages fell to 3.1% in October compared with a year earlier.
  • New bank lending dropped sharply in October and missed forecasts, and analysts such as Fitch’s Jeremy Zook see fiscal measures as better placed to support growth.