China Sales Offset Brazil’s Export Losses From US Tariffs, FGV Finds

Overview

• From August to November, export value to China rose 28.6% as shipments to the United States fell 25.1%, with volumes up about 30% to China and down 23.5% to the US.
• US measures announced in mid-November lifted a 10% reciprocal levy on 238 farm items and removed a 40% surtax on 269 products, with effects expected to show from December and January.
• Brazil posted a US$5.8 billion trade surplus in November and US$57.8 billion for January–November, and FGV projects a 2025 surplus between US$61 billion and US$65 billion.
• The steepest US-bound declines from August to November hit non-metallic minerals, beverages, tobacco, metallic minerals, forestry products, metal products and wood products.
• FGV says President Donald Trump overestimated the damage to Brazil’s overall exports, yet 22% of Brazilian sales to the US remain under surtaxes and negotiations continue.