Overview
- Three people briefed on the plan told the South China Morning Post that Beijing is likely to set a 2026 GDP target range of 4.5% to 5%, a departure from three years of about 5%.
- A range would signal tolerance for modest deceleration and prioritize productivity, consumption and more balanced expansion over headline speed.
- The target is expected to be unveiled at the National People’s Congress in early March and would guide local government planning in the first year of a new five-year plan.
- China met its 5% goal in 2025 with help from a record trade surplus of roughly $1.2 trillion, but analysts warn slowing global growth could weaken that export buffer.
- Reports point to soft domestic demand and property-sector strain, and some private estimates suggest underlying growth may be lower than official figures, underscoring the need for policy flexibility.