Overview
- Official data show 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, cutting the population by about 3.39 million to roughly 1.40489 billion, with births at the lowest level since 1949 and deaths the highest since 1960.
- China’s population aged 65 and over reached 223.65 million (15.9%), and those 60 and over hit 323.38 million (23%), both record shares and up from 2024.
- Academic estimates place the total fertility rate near 0.96 in 2025 after roughly 1.0–1.1 in 2024, far below the roughly 2.14 level analysts say would be needed to stabilize births given today’s sex ratio.
- The National Health Commission reported a 2024 sex ratio at birth of 111.7 males per 100 females, a persistent imbalance that reduces future female cohorts and further weighs on birth numbers.
- Online discussion appeared constrained as the birth tally did not trend on major platforms, some posts were removed on Zhihu, and users voiced skepticism about the figures.