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Overview
- Strong overseas demand produced a record US$1.2 trillion trade surplus, as falling shipments to the U.S. were offset by gains to ASEAN, the European Union and Africa.
- Retail sales rose just 0.9% in December and investment cooled, underscoring weak household spending and business confidence.
- Real-estate investment fell 17.2% in 2025 and fixed-asset investment declined 3.8% for the year, highlighting the property sector’s deep downturn.
- The IMF’s new outlook pegs global growth at 3.3% in 2026 on AI-driven investment, with China projected to grow 4.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027 as trade-policy risks persist.
- Some independent analysts, including Rhodium Group, estimate China’s 2025 growth at closer to 2.5%–3%, challenging the official figure.