Overview

• Official figures show GDP rose 4.8% year over year in the third quarter, down from 5.2% in Q2, with September industrial output up 6.5% as retail sales cooled to 3%.
• Investment stayed weak, with fixed‑asset investment down 0.5% in January–September and property investment sinking 13.9% as new‑home prices recorded their sharpest fall in 11 months.
• External demand continued to prop up activity, lifting the goods trade surplus to a record near US$875 billion so far in 2025 despite soft domestic spending.
• The Communist Party opened a four‑day plenum to set priorities for the 2026–2030 plan, as the IMF urges a shift toward household consumption and sees growth slowing to about 4.2% in 2026.
• US‑China trade frictions remain a headwind after tariff threats, though US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week and markets are watching for signs of a thaw.