Overview
- The joint draft from the commerce and science ministries, published in mid‑October, puts an immediate registration requirement on transfers and opens a comment period until November 15 for rules that would ban 14 technologies and tightly restrict 26 more.
- The list concentrates on 23 AI items, targeting large‑model methods and autonomous AI agents and proposing a ban on models judged able to create offensive cyber tools while exempting access via apps and publicly available open‑source work.
- Solar rules focus on upstream production methods such as certain thin wafers, high‑efficiency perovskite and tandem processes and a new polysilicon technique, but they do not cover finished solar modules.
- The commerce ministry has also moved to curb exports of drones, heavy machinery and tunnel‑boring machines, building on 2025 limits on battery processes and rare earths and responding to foreign curbs such as recent U.S. chip controls.
- The draft is not final and firms and governments in Europe, the United States and India are still assessing impacts on supply chains, negotiations and project costs, with the potential to slow diversification of photovoltaic production and raise costs for some manufacturers and installers.