Overview

• Official data show the consumer price index fell 0.3% year on year in September and rose 0.1% from August.
• Producer prices declined 2.3% from a year earlier, the 36th straight monthly drop and the smallest fall in seven months.
• Core inflation reached 1.0% year on year, a 19‑month high that signals limited stabilization even as overall price pressures remain weak.
• Economist polls expect July–September GDP growth of about 4.8% year on year, adding pressure for incremental support rather than large-scale stimulus.
• Trade tensions have escalated with new U.S. tariff threats and Chinese export controls, though September exports rebounded, including stronger shipments to the United States.