Overview
- Customs data show exports rose 5.5% to about $3.8 trillion in 2025 while imports held near $2.6 trillion, with total trade value topping 45 trillion yuan, according to Vice Customs Minister Wang Jun.
- December outperformed forecasts as exports grew 6.6% year over year and imports increased 5.7% year over year.
- Bilateral flows with the United States fell sharply—Chinese exports to the U.S. dropped about 20% and imports from the U.S. fell 14.6%—as suppliers redirected goods to ASEAN (+13.4%), Africa (+25.8%) and the European Union (+8.4%).
- Beijing will remove VAT refunds for photovoltaic exports from April and reduce battery export rebates, while the EU is allowing minimum prices for China-made electric vehicles in place of higher tariffs.
- The IMF is urging China to reduce reliance on export-led growth and bolster domestic consumption, citing strains from weak household demand, a property slump and a relatively weak renminbi.