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China Posts Record $1.19 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025

Resilient exports combined with soft imports produced the gap, prompting rebate cuts as well as IMF calls for a stronger yuan.

Overview

  • Customs data show exports rose 5.5% to roughly $3.8 trillion as imports hovered near $2.6 trillion, with total goods trade exceeding 45 trillion yuan, according to Vice Customs Minister Wang Jun.
  • December outperformed forecasts, with exports up 6.6% year over year and imports up 5.7%, capping a stronger end to the year.
  • Bilateral trade with the United States slumped as exports to the US fell about 20% and imports from the US dropped 14.6%, while sales to ASEAN, Africa and the European Union increased.
  • Multiple reports describe Chinese firms diversifying markets and in some cases shifting processing or routing through third countries to blunt US tariffs, a practice drawing greater scrutiny from Washington.
  • Beijing announced export-policy adjustments, ending VAT refunds for photovoltaic shipments from April and phasing down battery rebates, as the IMF urges currency appreciation and stronger domestic demand to reduce export dependence.