China Posts About 5% Growth for 2025 as Q4 Slows and Exports Drive a Record Surplus

Overview

• Government data show fourth‑quarter growth at 4.5%, the slowest quarterly pace since late 2022.
• Robust exports generated a record trade surplus of about $1.2 trillion, helping offset weak household spending and business investment.
• Shipments to the United States fell after higher tariffs under President Donald Trump, but sales to other markets rose.
• Beijing maintained consumer subsidies and vehicle and appliance trade‑in programs, though their boost to demand has waned.
• Economists see growth cooling in 2026, with Deutsche Bank forecasting around 4.5% and JPMorgan noting some stimulus may be pared back.