China Posts $1.07 Trillion Trade Surplus as Brazilian Markets Sway on Flávio Bolsonaro Risk

Overview

• China’s customs data show a January–November goods surplus of about $1.07 trillion, with November exports up 5.9% year over year and imports up 1.9%.
• Shipments to the United States fell roughly 28%–29% in November, the eighth straight monthly decline, as exporters leaned more on Europe and Southeast Asia and rerouted finishing to countries like India and Mexico.
• China’s Politburo flagged external trade risks, set boosting domestic demand as a priority, and urged development of “new productive forces,” with analysts expecting gradual fiscal support and modest monetary easing.
• In Brazil, assets slid after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro called his presidential bid “irreversible,” pushing the dollar near R$5.50 intraday before it closed at R$5.435 and leaving the Ibovespa down 0.13% after sharp swings.
• Market volatility in Brazil eased somewhat after the PL da Dosimetria was placed on the Câmara’s agenda, while globally the U.S. JOLTS report showed 7.65–7.67 million openings and investors awaited Wednesday’s Fed decision and Copom’s expected Selic hold at 15%.