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1h ago

China Meets 5% Growth Target for 2025 as Q4 Cools to 4.5%

Analysts warn of an export-heavy rebound masking weak consumption.

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Arbeiterinnen an der Prüfstraße für Autokomponenten, Zhuji, Zhejiang, China.
China hat im vergangenen Jahr ein Wirtschaftswachstum von fünf Prozent verzeichnet, eines der niedrigsten seit Jahrzehnten in der zweitgrößten Volkswirtschaft der Welt. Die chinesische Wirtschaft steht weiterhin vor einer Krise im Immobiliensektor.

Overview

  • Official data show fourth-quarter GDP rose 4.5% year over year, the weakest pace since the end of COVID lockdowns.
  • December retail sales increased 0.9%, marking the slowest growth since restrictions were lifted.
  • Fixed-asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, with property investment contracting 17.2% over the year.
  • Beijing reported a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, with exports to the U.S. down about 20% as shipments to ASEAN, Africa and the EU rose.
  • Major forecasters expect slower growth in 2026—around 4.4% to 4.5% from the World Bank and IMF, with Goldman Sachs at 4.8%—citing property strains and high local-government debt.