Overview

• Under the nationwide initiative families will receive 3,600 yuan per child born on or after January 1, 2025, each year until the child turns three.
• The subsidy complements existing local incentives such as cash and housing benefits that have had limited success in reversing the birth decline.
• China’s annual births plunged to 9.54 million in 2024, half the figure recorded in 2016, marking a third consecutive year of population shrinkage.
• Demographic modeling by the United Nations forecasts the population could drop to 1.3 billion by 2050 and fall below 800 million by 2100 without stronger uptake.
• Persistent high child-rearing costs, career pressures on women and evolving social norms are expected to continue dampening fertility despite new subsidies.