Overview
- China’s safeguard regime is now in effect and will run through December 31, 2028, with annual quotas that rise slightly each year.
- For 2026 the total quota is 2.7 million tonnes, including about 1.1 million for Brazil, roughly half that for Argentina, around 200,000–205,000 for Australia, and 164,000 for the United States, with a 55% surcharge once caps are exceeded.
- China also suspended part of its free-trade agreement with Australia covering beef, prompting Canberra to voice disappointment and flag diplomatic engagement.
- Australia’s industry warns shipments to China could drop by about one third, costing more than A$1 billion, while Brazil plans bilateral talks and work within the WTO framework.
- Impact differs across suppliers: U.S. exporters expect limited near-term effect given current volumes, and New Zealand’s trade minister says its allocation should largely shield local exporters.