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China Keeps Soy Pledge Vague as U.S. Sales Stall After Trade Thaw

Record inventories alongside weak crush margins leave Brazilian supplies cheaper.

Overview

  • At a Nov. 13 briefing, China’s Commerce Ministry declined to confirm the U.S.-announced plan for 12 million tons of American soy purchases this year and 25 million tons annually through 2028.
  • Traders report new U.S. bookings have largely paused, with state buyer COFCO seen securing only a few cargoes for December and January.
  • Chinese port stocks hit a record 10.3 million tons on Nov. 7 and crushers held 7.5 million tons, with soymeal prices down and processing margins deeply negative.
  • U.S. beans still carry about a 13% tariff and are quoted at roughly $540–$550 per ton to China for January versus about $480 for Brazilian cargoes.
  • Beijing eased some tariffs and restored import rights for several U.S. exporters, yet state media also highlighted a separate COFCO pact for nearly 20 million tons of Brazilian farm products.