Overview
- Official data show fourth-quarter GDP rose 4.5% year on year and 1.2% quarter on quarter, the weakest annual pace since early 2023.
- December activity split widened, with retail sales up just 0.9% year on year as industrial output accelerated to 5.2% and the jobless rate held at 5.1%.
- Fixed-asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025, the first annual decline in decades, while property investment tumbled 17.2% and new-home prices fell 0.4% month on month in December.
- A record trade surplus of about $1.2 trillion underscored export-led momentum as shipments shifted toward non‑U.S. markets.
- The PBOC trimmed sector-specific lending rates and signaled scope for broader easing, as economists expect slower growth near 4.5% in 2026 and urge measures to bolster household demand.