Overview
- China’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus underpinned growth, with stronger shipments to ASEAN, Africa and the EU offsetting a sharp drop in exports to the United States.
- Domestic indicators weakened: retail sales rose just 0.9% in December, fixed‑asset investment fell 3.8% in 2025 and property investment contracted 17.2%.
- Economists highlight fragile household demand, falling home prices and high local‑government debt as key drags on broader recovery efforts.
- Some independent analysts question the official figures, with Rhodium estimating actual 2025 growth at roughly 2.5% to 3%.
- Demographic headwinds intensified as the birth rate hit a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 and the population fell by about 3.4 million, while 2026 forecasts from the World Bank, IMF and Goldman Sachs point to slower expansion and policy guidance is expected at March’s Five‑Year Plan session.