Overview
- A Reuters poll points to 4.4% year-on-year growth in Q4, about 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, with full-year 2025 near 4.9% and official data due Monday.
- Consumption looks soft with retail sales forecast to rise 1.2% year-on-year in December, the weakest since December 2022.
- Fixed-asset investment is expected to register its first annual contraction in decades, underscoring the property downturn.
- External demand remains the key support as China logged a record trade surplus near $1.2 trillion in 2025 driven by diversification to non-U.S. markets.
- The PBoC cut sector-specific rates and kept the door open to reserve-ratio or broader rate reductions, while analysts flag weak nominal growth and a 2026 GDP forecast near 4.5%.