Overview

• Preliminary forecasts indicate China’s GDP grew 5.1% year-on-year in Q2, outpacing the 5% full-year target despite slowing from Q1’s 5.4% pace.
• A mid-May U.S.–China tariff truce front-loaded exports, boosting Q2 shipments but risking a pullback when duties revert in August.
• The People’s Bank of China has dropped its fixed easing timetable, choosing instead to calibrate the intensity and pace of monetary policy interventions.
• Economists at Citigroup and Nomura expect modest year-end easing measures, including a 10-basis-point policy rate cut and a 50-basis-point reserve requirement reduction.
• Persistent headwinds such as a 10.9% slump in first-half real estate investment and ongoing deflationary pressures have analysts eyeing policy signals from the late-July Politburo meeting.