Overview

• China has not booked new U.S. soybean orders this year and exports to the country have fallen by more than 50% in value, pushing growers to seek other buyers at lower prices.
• Beijing’s roughly 20% counter-duties make U.S. soybeans less competitive, with Kansas officials estimating tariffs add about $2 per bushel to landed costs.
• Chinese buyers have turned to South America, with Brazil boosting shipments and Argentina temporarily suspending export taxes as China purchased a large share of its crop in late September.
• Soybean prices have dropped from about $15 to roughly $10 per bushel over three years, and farm bankruptcies are reported up around 50% from 2024 as input and equipment costs rise.
• The White House has signaled at least $10 billion in tariff-funded aid but provided no program details, while President Trump threatens new 100% tariffs on China starting Nov. 1.