China Enacts Three-Year Beef Safeguard With 55% Over-Quota Tariff, Allocates Brazil 1.106 Million-Tonne Limit

Overview

• The measures took effect on January 1, 2026 after a yearlong probe concluded rising imports damaged China’s domestic beef industry.
• Country-specific quotas cover major suppliers, with Brazil allotted 1.106 million tonnes in 2026, rising to 1.128 million in 2027 and 1.154 million in 2028.
• Volumes above quota face a 55% surcharge in addition to in-quota tariffs reported near 12%, lifting effective charges on excess shipments to roughly 67%.
• The Brazilian government issued a joint note committing to bilateral engagement and WTO channels, while Agriculture Minister Carlos Fávaro said talks will address how quotas are counted, treatment of in-transit cargo, and possible transfers of unused allocations.
• Industry groups estimate the cap could affect about 30% of Brazil’s recent China-bound volume and trigger up to US$3 billion in 2026 revenue losses, with China accounting for roughly US$8 billion of Brazilian beef sales last year.