Overview
- Analysts say China is outpacing the U.S. in early commercialization as firms prepare larger robot runs in 2026, while Tesla has yet to sell its Optimus unit.
- Beijing’s roadmap elevates embodied AI in the 15th Five-Year Plan with scale-up goals, and authorities have launched standardization efforts reported to be led by MIIT.
- UBTech says it will deliver 500 industrial units this year and targets 5,000 in 2026 and 10,000 in 2027 after a roughly $400 million share placement, and AgiBot says its 5,000th unit rolled off the line.
- Key bottlenecks persist, including reliance on U.S. chips, fragile real-world autonomy and hand dexterity, and unit costs estimated at $150,000–$500,000 that must fall toward $20,000–$50,000 to compete with labor.
- Skepticism is mounting as experts warn of ‘humanoid theater’ and China’s NDRC flags bubble risks, even as limited trials expand, such as Agility Robotics’ Digit operating at a Mercado Libre facility in Texas, and U.S. officials reportedly weigh policy steps.