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China Drives December Jump in Russian Oil as India Falls Behind Turkiye

Sanctions on major Russian oil firms triggered refinery pullbacks in India, reshaping flows toward China, boosting Turkiye's position.

Overview

  • China’s seaborne crude imports from Russia rose about 23% month on month in December, lifting total Russian oil exports by roughly 11% with ESPO purchases at a four‑month high.
  • India’s Russian fossil‑fuel buys fell about 29% to €2.3 billion, with Russia’s share of India’s crude intake slipping to roughly 25% from 35% in November.
  • Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery halved Russian crude intake and state refiners cut about 15%, as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil raised compliance risks; Reliance’s December cargoes were booked before OFAC measures took effect.
  • Turkiye overtook India as the No. 2 buyer at €2.6 billion, while China accounted for about 48% of export revenue among the top five buyers.
  • Russian LNG exports climbed 16% to the highest monthly level of 2025, with France up 18% and Spain up 27%; LNG revenue rose 13% even as crude export revenue fell 12%, and EU rules require Russian LNG imports to end by year‑end.