Overview
- Chinese customs data show Beijing has effectively stopped shipments of dysprosium and terbium to Japan since January and has sharply curtailed exports of yttrium, scandium and other rare metals.
- Trade records also show halted or severely reduced flows of molybdenum powder, some tungsten items, certain gallium products and antimonial lead, many of which have military or dual-use applications.
- Japanese companies are increasingly flagging these shortages in Tokyo Stock Exchange filings, with mentions of rare-earth risks roughly doubling since May and many firms warning of operational impacts.
- Tokyo has responded with subsidies, investment plans, recycling projects, a US-Japan coordination framework and G7 cooperation on stockpiles, but commercial-scale alternative supplies will take years to develop.
- Economists and industry analysts warn that prolonged restrictions could ripple through industries from consumer electronics to AI and EVs and that the near-term human impact will be tighter production, higher costs and slower delivery for affected products.