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China Auto Exports Surge as Subsidy Shift Strains Home EV Sales

Analysts expect overseas demand to lead growth in 2026 following steps to ease ChinaEU tensions over electric cars.

Overview

  • China exported more than 7 million vehicles in 2025, up 21% year over year, with new‑energy vehicle shipments doubling to about 2.6 million, according to industry data.
  • Passenger car sales in China fell 18% in December from a year earlier after a nearly 7% drop in November, reflecting a tougher market and intensifying price competition.
  • From January 1, buyers replacing a car with an EV receive a subsidy equal to 12% of the new vehicle’s price capped at 20,000 yuan, a change dealers say could push buyers back to petrol models.
  • In the first 11 days of January, EVs accounted for 35.7% of China’s car sales compared with a 54% penetration rate across 2025, indicating early pressure on electric demand.
  • China and the EU agreed on steps to resolve their EV export standoff, and Deutsche Bank projects a 13% rise in China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2026, though tariffs in the EU, U.S. and Canada persist and most automakers still derive under 10% of revenue from overseas markets.