Overview
- A U.S. raid captured and extradited Nicolás Maduro, drawing sharp condemnations from Beijing and Moscow without any visible military countermove.
- Analysts point to the U.S. geographic advantage, the absence of Chinese or Russian bases in the region, and prohibitive escalation risks as decisive constraints.
- Russia remains absorbed in the war in Ukraine while China focuses on Indo-Pacific flashpoints, limiting bandwidth to contest U.S. actions in Latin America.
- Venezuelan crude makes up a small share of China’s imports, and the oil’s extra-heavy quality plus decayed infrastructure curb any swift market impact.
- China’s practical support has ebbed, with loans-for-oil largely halted, lenders reviewing exposure, and no recent arms transfers, while a January 7 seizure of a Russian-flagged tanker was reported as part of U.S. pressure.