Overview

• Relator Paulinho da Força said after talks with Speaker Hugo Motta that he will push to bring the so‑called Dosimetria bill to the floor on Wednesday, Oct. 8, after another round with Centrão leaders.
• The draft under discussion would keep convictions but reduce penalties by merging criminal types and lowering ranges, with press analyses estimating significant cuts that could range from 7–11 years off Jair Bolsonaro’s term to a projection of about 1 year and 7 months of house arrest.
• Bolsonaro allies in the PL insist on full amnesty and plan a substitute text, while the PT opposes any measure that benefits the former president, a standoff that proponents acknowledge could sink or stall the bill.
• Polling shows strong public rejection of amnesty for Jan. 8 defendants (64% against, 27% in favor), and recent mass pushback also helped the Senate archive the shielding PEC, hardening resistance to leniency efforts.
• Hugo Motta is steering the Chamber’s agenda toward security and Ethics cases, and the looming fiscal MP 1303 deadline on Wednesday further crowds the schedule, leaving the Dosimetria vote uncertain despite fast‑track status approved on Sept. 17.