Overview
- The government delivered the Paquete Económico to Congress on Tuesday, Sept. 8, proposing a headline deficit of 3.9% of GDP and RFSP financing needs above 1.6 trillion pesos for 2027.
- Hacienda projects growth between 1.5% and 2.5% and says the plan protects Programas para el Bienestar and public investment while continuing reduced transfers to Pemex.
- The package raises revenue through stepped-up fiscalization and tighter limits on deductions for companies with revenues over 50 million pesos rather than by introducing new taxes.
- Business groups and think tanks including Coparmex and CIEP warn the plan will push the Saldo Histórico de RFSP toward about 55% of GDP and raise debt-service costs to roughly 4% of GDP, which could squeeze investment and firm finances.
- Congressional review and market scrutiny will focus on the realism of growth and revenue assumptions, the fiscal impact of continuing fuel tax stimuli, and calls for an independent fiscal council to test risks and safeguard investment.