Overview
- The CFTC on Oct. 9 issued an interim final rule excluding casino-style gambling and published a proposed rule that would explicitly classify event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture and weather as swaps subject to federal oversight.
- The NFL filed an amicus brief supporting New Jersey’s petition to the U.S. Supreme Court and warned that $1.8 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction-market trading on one opening Sunday raised risks for consumer protection and game integrity.
- Federal appeals courts are split on jurisdiction, with the 3rd Circuit siding with Kalshi and the 6th and 9th Circuits supporting state authority, and Kalshi has until Nov. 9 to respond to New Jersey’s Supreme Court petition.
- Leagues and state officials want stronger age limits, data access and anti-manipulation safeguards while the CFTC says it sought cooperation with the NFL and that its rulemaking will let federally registered exchanges operate under uniform federal rules.
- Next steps include a roughly 30-day public comment window on the CFTC proposal, potential Solicitor General input or Supreme Court action in the months ahead, and a court ruling that will determine whether prediction markets face a single federal regime or a patchwork of state gambling rules.