CFTC Launches Prediction Markets Review, Issues Advisory on Event Contracts

Overview

• On March 12, 2026, the CFTC’s market oversight division issued a non-binding advisory and the Commission released an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets.
• The advisory reiterates that DCMs must list only contracts not readily susceptible to manipulation, maintain real-time surveillance and compliance programs, and prevent fraud and insider trading.
• Sports-related contracts are flagged for heightened risk, with recommendations to consult leagues, rely on official data, establish integrity information-sharing, and avoid contracts driven by a single individual’s actions.
• The ANPRM seeks comment on applying Core Principles, interpreting public‑interest limits under CEA section 5c(c)(5)(C), and whether additional guidance is needed for blockchain-based platforms.
• The releases emphasize the CFTC’s claim of federal jurisdiction over prediction markets as state regulators in Nevada and Arizona continue to press competing oversight claims.