Overview
- The Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action released its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 assessment on Dec. 29, placing South Asia among major global flashpoints.
- The report rates the prospect of renewed India‑Pakistan hostilities linked to violence in Kashmir as a moderate likelihood with a moderate impact on U.S. interests.
- It also assesses a renewed Pakistan‑Afghanistan confrontation driven by cross‑border militant attacks as a moderate likelihood with a low impact.
- The analysis references a brief India‑Pakistan war in May that ended with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and reports of October border fighting involving Afghan Taliban forces and militants.
- Beyond South Asia, the assessment highlights Gaza, the Russia‑Ukraine war, potential U.S. military action in Venezuela, and rising political violence in the United States, while urging stronger preventive diplomacy.