Overview
- The survey rates a renewed India–Pakistan armed clash as a moderate likelihood with a moderate impact on U.S. interests, pointing to potential triggers linked to militant activity in Kashmir.
- It also judges a moderate likelihood of Pakistan–Afghanistan fighting driven by cross‑border militant attacks, while assessing lower impact for the United States.
- The assessment follows 2025 flashpoints including the Pahalgam terror attack, India’s Operation Sindoor and a brief war halted by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in May.
- Post‑ceasefire acquisitions have accelerated, with India approving about Rs 79,000 crore in drones, missiles and guided munitions, and Pakistan pursuing new air defenses and drones with Turkey and China.
- The report places these South Asian risks alongside Gaza and Ukraine and uses a tiered likelihood‑impact framework to guide U.S. preventive diplomacy and resource prioritization.